China has the smallest number of nuclear warheads (estimated at 300) of the five declared nuclear powers. Russia and the United States will each have more than 10 times more nuclear warheads than China if declared levels under START II are reached in 2003. China began its nuclear program in the '50s and exploded its first nuclear device in 1964.
Land
The DF-5 ballistic missile has a range of 12,000 - 13,000 kilometers (meaning the US is in range) and was successfully tested in 1971. These missiles are being updated to the DF-21, DF-31 and DF-41 which will use solid-fuel and have improved mobility. China is also working towards giving the top of the line missiles the capability to carry multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVS).
Sea
Problems with nuclear reactors for submarines and solid fuel for SLBNs have slowed China's SSBN program to what many believe to be two Xia-class SSBNs (carry 12 Julang-l SLBMs with range of 1700 km) with only one being fully operational.
Air
US intelligence estimates that China will buy 25 or 50 more Russian Su-27 Flanker fighters. This would add to the 26 Su-27s delivered in January, 1992.
Unlike the United States and Russia, China has a long-standing "no-first-use" policy. China would like to ensure the possession of a nuclear retaliatory capability. China, feeling threatened by others in the P-5 that they perceive as trying to achieve a first strike capability, are modernization their nuclear weapons program. Chinese officials claim that this modernization will be complete by the end of 1996 and reserve the right to continue testing until they feel that their modernization can secure a retaliatory capability. This reservation, along with French parliamentary resistance, is the major stumbling block for timely passage of the CTBT which, in turn, is a major stumbling block for the NPT renewal starting April 12, 199~
According to a '94 Naval intelligence assessment China "does not perceive any large-scale threat from either global or major regional powers through the next decade." Conflict with Taiwan or conflict in the Spratlay Islands are often mentioned as potential sparks to a conventional war but the conventional and intelligence estimates do not foresee any nuclear weapons use arising even out if conventional war did occur. The successor to Deng Xiaping is expected to be non-military and even if a military official attempts to assert control there would be no incentive to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons.
China has tested 41 times with the last test being October of 1994. Chinese officials claim that the testing program will continue until 1996 upon which they would like to join the CTBT. It is difficult for the US to take the moral highground when the US has conducted 25 nuclear tests for every 1 test the Chinese have conducted.
6/89 - Tiananmen Square
1991 - Beijing admits supplying Iran with a mini-reactor and an electromagnetic separator for producing isotopes saying they were meant for peaceful use.
8/91 - China announces that it will sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
9/91 -Bush announces withdrawal of all ground- and sea-launched tactical nuclear weapons worldwide.
3/92 - China becomes 147th member of the NPT.
1/93 - PRC buys unknown number of Mig-29s from Iran in exchange for Chinese missile technology and a nuclear power station.
1/93 - Cheney confirms Israel passed Patriot guidance and propulsion technology to China in return for information on the M-9 and M-11 missiles.
6/93 - CIA and Pentagon officials claim that M-11s are already in Pakistan.
8/93 - US imposes ban on selling sensitive equipment to China's defense and aerospace ministries in response to reports that China violated the MTCR by selling M-l ls to Pakistan. Financial times reported that $400 million business opportunities lost per year.
10/93 Poly Group Corp. denies the company's involvement in the sale of M-ll missiles to Pakistan and claims that they cannot export strategic weapons without the approval of the PLA General Staff Dept.
4/94 - DIA and CIA state there is little threat of unauthorized ballistic missile launches from China or Russia and states that China has shown interest in acquiring US technology to improve the security of its weapons. Chinese nuclear security is said to rely more on human loyalty than technical controls.
9/3/94 - China and Russia sign statement pledging to detarget their nuclear missiles aimed at each other and promised that neither would be the first to use nuclear weapons against the other.
10/94 - US officials claim that Chinese technicians took part, in September, '94, in training Pakistani army troops in the use of M-11s, in order to fulfill contractual obligations in a 1988 deal. The scientists reportedly went to a missile facility under construction in Sargodha, Pakistan.
10/4/94 Christopher claims sanctions on high tech items will be lifted because of a renewed China pledge not to sell M-11s to Pakistan. 10/7/94 - China conducts its 41st underground nuclear test. Japan warns that China will lose billions of dollars worth of aid if China continues testing nuclear weapons.
10/93 Poly Group Corp. denies the company's involvement in the sale of M-11 missiles to Pakistan and claims that they cannot export strategic weapons without the approval of the PLA General Staff Dept.
10/16-18/94 - SecDef Perry and Senators Inouye, Nunn, Stevens, and Warner goes to China for three days of meetings with top government officials and the PLA. Perry pushed for greater transparency in China's defense spending and military strategy. Perry also suggested that if China would agree to halt underground nuclear testing, the US would provide nuclear simulation technology to China to ensure the reliability of the weapons. Chinese officials voiced concern that if the US deployed a theater ballistic missile defense system China's limited nuclear force could be rendered impotent. Jiang Zemin agrees with the US/N. Korea agreement
11/4/94 - Sanctions imposed in August 1993 formally lifted.
11/13/94 Clinton offers Jiang Zemin a proposal which would absolve China of penalties if China disclosed sales of M-11 missiles to Pakistan. If China did not disclose and the US found proof Washington would impose sanctions that would cost China billions of dollars.
11/14/94 - Jiang Zemin tells Clinton "there are no differences between the US and the Chinese on the Korean issue."
11/21/94 - China agrees to move ahead with plans to build two nuclear power plants in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr. An agreement was reached in 9/92 for China to build two 300 megawatt nuclear power plants at a cost of 1.2 billion.
China wants to rejoin the GATT and wants to become a founding member of its successor, the World Trade Organization by the end of 1995.
China is Russia's second largest trading partner after Germany, with trade last year rising to 7.7 billion, including l$ billion in Russian arms sales.